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Last week, a very well-respected real estate analytics firm surprised many with their home price projection for the next twelve months. CoreLogic, in their latest Home Price Index said:
“The economic downturn that started in March 2020 is predicted to cause a 6.6% drop in the HPI by May 2021, which would be the first decrease in annual home prices in over 9 years.”
The forecast was surprising as it was strikingly different than any other projection by major analysts. Six of the other eight forecasts call for appreciation, and the two who project depreciation indicate it will be one percent or less.
Here is a graph showing all of the projections:There’s a simple formula to determine the future price of any item: calculate the supply of that item in ratio to the demand for that item. In housing right now, demand far exceeds supply. Last week mortgage applications to buy a home were 33% higher than they were at the same time last year. The available inventory of homes for sale is 31% lower than it was last year. Normally, these numbers should call for homes to continue to appreciate.
Bottom Line
Because of the uncertainty with the pandemic, any economic prediction is extremely difficult. However, looking at the limited supply of homes for sale and the tremendous demand for housing, it is difficult to disagree with the majority of analysts who are calling for price appreciation.
If you don’t have thousands saved to replace your roof, there’s a good chance you should start paying attention to potential home repairs and how much they cost. According to the Simple Dollar, something as seemingly simple as pulling off old shingles and replacing them with new can easily exceed that amount. And that’s only one project. Keep reading for insight on how to get yourself in a financial position to handle common home repairs. And keep in mind that it’s not a question of if these issues will arise, but when.
When to plan home repairs
You can’t always plan ahead for these things, but you can incorporate some important work into planned projects. If you have a home renovation scheduled, for example, you have an opportunity to make your home safer and bring it up to current code requirements. While it will add to your overall renovation costs, having things like the plumbing and electrical updated while the walls are already open will save you in the long-run. As an added benefit, upgrades like better insulation and more efficient plumbing will lower your energy consumption, saving you even more.
If a remodel is in the works, you could find that significant repairs will outgrow affordability. In this case, buying a new home could be a better choice. Not only would you get to enjoy your new home, but you may have less maintenance to worry about.
How Much Money Do I Need?
The amount of money you should put aside each year for home upkeep, including for emergency repairs, is different depending on the age of your home, where you live, and how much work you can do yourself. Most homeowners can expect to spend just under $3,000 each year on home improvements. About half of that will go toward replacement items or to fix ones that are broken. Keep in mind that some years you may spend much less, while others you will feel as though you’re writing a check every week. Most home repair and renovation experts recommend that homeowners sock away about 1 percent of their home’s value each year to prepare for future problems.
When Saving Isn’t an Option
Sometimes, things pop up out of the blue. Even if you have been putting aside money, major projects, such as having to have the electrical system replaced or digging up your mainline plumbing, can cost $10,000 or more. Robinson’s Plumbing Service explains that plumbers can charge upward of $450 per linear foot to excavate sewer pipes. And if you think your home insurance is going to cover a sewage backup, you are probably wrong.
In these cases, it may be necessary to look to your home’s equity to help you cover these repairs. If you have enough home equity, you may qualify for a refinance loan such as a PennyMac refi that will provide cash for remodeling jobs even if your credit score isn’t flawless. This will give you the injection of cash you need and plenty of time to pay it off.
The Hidden Costs
During an emergency like the sewer backup mentioned above, you likely aren’t thinking clearly. You may be in a panic and willing to hire the first contractor that shows up with a wrench in hand. Unfortunately, doing so may wind up costing you more than you’re willing to finance. Keep in mind that, even as water is filling up your lawn (or worse), that is your responsibility to get a firm quote in writing from any contractor who would like to do the work. Failure to do so may result in even more costs down the road. Keep in mind, too, that most reputable contractors won’t ask for payment before doing the work. As inconvenient as it may be, if your contractor insists on a check before the work begins, keep looking.
DIY Repairs to Avoid
As a homeowner, you likely want to save where you can. And that’s great, especially if you know your way around the toolbox. Simple repairs aside, it’s a good idea to let professionals handle major systems, such as your HVAC or plumbing. These areas, along with the electrical system, require years of expertise and updated knowledge of local building codes to repair correctly. There’s no problem with replacing broken stair treads or a busted deck board, but anything that your family relies on for their health and safety should be left to the pros.
Home repairs are an inevitable part of homeownership. It is no secret that things wear out and need eventual replacement. To weather these occurrences, regularly put money aside for home repairs. The sooner you begin putting money aside, the sooner you can tackle a problem and keep a bad situation from getting worse. And if all else fails, it may be better to move on. You may find now is the perfect time to build the home of your dreams.
Earlier this month, realtor.com announced the release of their initial Housing Recovery Index, a weekly guide showing how the pandemic has impacted the residential real estate market. The index leverages a weighted average of four key components of the housing industry, tracking each of the following:
Housing Demand – Growth in online search activity
Home Price – Growth in asking prices
Housing Supply – Growth of new listings
Pace of Sales – Difference in time-on-market
The index then compares the current status “to the last week of January 2020 market trend, as a baseline for pre-COVID market growth. The overall index is set to 100 in this baseline period. The higher a market’s index value, the higher its recovery and vice versa.”
The graph below charts the index by showing how the real estate market started out strong in early 2020, and then dropped dramatically at the beginning of March when the pandemic paused the economy. It also shows the strength of the recovery since the beginning of May.It’s clear to see that the housing market is showing promising signs of recovery from the deep economic cuts we experienced earlier this spring. As noted by Dean Mon, Chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB):
“As the nation reopens, housing is well-positioned to lead the economy forward.”
The data today indicates the housing market is already on the way up.
Bottom Line
Staying connected to the housing market’s performance over the coming months will be essential, as we continue to evaluate exactly how the housing market is doing in this uncharted time ahead.
As the health crisis started making its way throughout our country earlier this spring, sellers have been cautious about putting their homes on the market. This hesitation stemmed primarily from fear of the spread of the coronavirus, and understandably so. This abundant caution has greatly impacted the number of homes for sale and slowed the pace of a typically busy spring real estate season. Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First Americannotes:
“As more homeowners are reluctant to list their homes for sale amid the pandemic, the supply of homes available to potential home buyers continues to dwindle.”
With many states beginning a phased approach to reopening, virtual best practices and health and safety guidelines for the industry are in place to increase the comfort level of buyers and sellers. What we see today, though, is that sellers are still making a very calculated return to the market. In their latest Weekly Housing Trends Report, realtor.com indicates:
“New listings: On the slow path to recovery. Nationwide the size of declines held mostly steady this week, dropping 23 percent over last year, a slight increase over last week but still an improvement over the 30 percent declines in the first half of May.”
Although we’re starting to inch our way toward more homes for sale throughout the country, the number of homes on the market is still well below the demand from buyers. In the same report, Javier Vivas, Director of Economic Research for realtor.com shares:
“Sellers have yet to come back in full force, limiting the availability of homes for sale. Total active listings are declining from a year ago at a faster rate than observed in previous weeks, and this trend could worsen as buyers regain confidence and come back to the market before sellers.”
Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR) seems to agree:
“In the coming months, buying activity will rise as states reopen and more consumers feel comfortable about homebuying in the midst of the social distancing measures.”
What we can see today is that homebuyers are more confident than the sellers, and they’re ready to make up for lost time from the traditional spring market. Summer is gearing up to be the 2020 buying season, so including your house in the mix may be your best opportunity to sell yet. Interest in your house may be higher than you think with so few sellers on the market today. As Vivas says:
“More properties will have to enter the market in June to bring the number of options for buyers back to normal levels for this time of the year, nationwide and in all large markets.”
Bottom Line
If you’re ready to sell your house this summer, let’s connect today. Buyers are interested and they may be looking for a house just like yours.
For seniors who have modest incomes, paying for housing- whether a home they own, a rental, or a room in a facility that provides additional senior care assistance- can feel nearly impossible. According to the National Council on Aging, in 2019 over 25 million Americans 60 and older were living on $31,225 or less per year, a status recognized as “economically insecure.” For those who rent, have housing debt, or need some form of assisted living, such an income is often inadequate for their housing needs.
These questions will help you decide whether you’re ready for a home that’s larger or in a more desirable location. If you answer yes to most of the questions, you may be ready to move.
Have you built substantial equity in your current home?
Check your annual mortgage statement or call your lender to find out how much you’ve paid down. Usually you don’t build up much equity in the first few years of your mortgage, as monthly payments are mostly interest. But if you’ve owned your home for five or more years, you may have significant, unrealized gains.
Has your income or financial situation changed?
If you’re making more money, you may be able to afford higher mortgage payments and cover the costs of moving. If your income has decreased, you may want to consider downsizing.
Have you outgrown your neighborhood?
The neighborhood you pick for your first home might not be the same one in which you want to settle down for good. You may have realized that you’d like to be closer to your job or live in a better school district.
Are there reasons why you can’t remodel or add on?
Sometimes you can create a bigger home by adding a new room or building up. But if your property isn’t large enough, your municipality doesn’t allow it, or you’re simply not interested in remodeling, then moving to a bigger home may be your best option.
Are you comfortable moving in the current housing market?
If your market is hot, your home may sell quickly and for top dollar, but the home you buy will also be more expensive. If your market is slow, finding a buyer may take longer, but you’ll have more selection and better pricing as you seek your new home. Ask your real estate professional what they see happening locally.
Are interest rates attractive?
Low rates help you buy “more” home, and also make it easier to find a buyer for your current place.
Is the effort and cost of maintaining your current home becoming difficult to manage?
Roby Robertson, A REALTOR ® can help you decide whether a smaller house, condo, or rental would be appropriate.
Carolina Living Real Estate your Realtor’s For Life
With all of the volatility in the stock market and uncertainty about the Coronavirus (COVID-19), some are concerned we may be headed for another housing crash like the one we experienced from 2006-2008. The feeling is understandable. Ali Wolf, Director of Economic Research at the real estate consulting firm Meyers Research, addressed this point in a recent interview:
“With people having PTSD from the last time, they’re still afraid of buying at the wrong time.”
There are many reasons, however, indicating this real estate market is nothing like 2008. Here are five visuals to show the dramatic differences.
1. Mortgage standards are nothing like they were back then.
During the housing bubble, it was difficult NOT to get a mortgage. Today, it is tough to qualify. The Mortgage Bankers’ Association releases a Mortgage Credit Availability Index which is “a summary measure which indicates the availability of mortgage credit at a point in time.” The higher the index, the easier it is to get a mortgage. As shown below, during the housing bubble, the index skyrocketed. Currently, the index shows how getting a mortgage is even more difficult than it was before the bubble.
2. Prices are not soaring out of control.
Below is a graph showing annual house appreciation over the past six years, compared to the six years leading up to the height of the housing bubble. Though price appreciation has been quite strong recently, it is nowhere near the rise in prices that preceded the crash.There’s a stark difference between these two periods of time. Normal appreciation is 3.6%, so while current appreciation is higher than the historic norm, it’s certainly not accelerating beyond control as it did in the early 2000s.
3. We don’t have a surplus of homes on the market. We have a shortage.
The months’ supply of inventory needed to sustain a normal real estate market is approximately six months. Anything more than that is an overabundance and will causes prices to depreciate. Anything less than that is a shortage and will lead to continued appreciation. As the next graph shows, there were too many homes for sale in 2007, and that caused prices to tumble. Today, there’s a shortage of inventory which is causing an acceleration in home values.
4. Houses became too expensive to buy.
The affordability formula has three components: the price of the home, the wages earned by the purchaser, and the mortgage rate available at the time. Fourteen years ago, prices were high, wages were low, and mortgage rates were over 6%. Today, prices are still high. Wages, however, have increased and the mortgage rate is about 3.5%. That means the average family pays less of their monthly income toward their mortgage payment than they did back then. Here’s a graph showing that difference:
5. People are equity rich, not tapped out.
In the run-up to the housing bubble, homeowners were using their homes as a personal ATM machine. Many immediately withdrew their equity once it built up, and they learned their lesson in the process. Prices have risen nicely over the last few years, leading to over fifty percent of homes in the country having greater than 50% equity. But owners have not been tapping into it like the last time. Here is a table comparing the equity withdrawal over the last three years compared to 2005, 2006, and 2007. Homeowners have cashed out over $500 billion dollars less than before:During the crash, home values began to fall, and sellers found themselves in a negative equity situation (where the amount of the mortgage they owned was greater than the value of their home). Some decided to walk away from their homes, and that led to a rash of distressed property listings (foreclosures and short sales), which sold at huge discounts, thus lowering the value of other homes in the area. That can’t happen today.
Bottom Line
If you’re concerned we’re making the same mistakes that led to the housing crash, take a look at the charts and graphs above to help alleviate your fears.
The Coronavirus (COVID-19) has caused massive global uncertainty, including a U.S. stock market correction no one could have seen coming. While much of the news has been about the effect on various markets, let’s also acknowledge the true impact it continues to have on lives and families around the world.
With all this uncertainty, how do you make powerful and confident decisions in regard to your real estate plans?
“At the very least, the coronavirus could cause some people to put home sales on hold.”
While this is an understandable approach, it is important to balance that with how it may end up costing you in the long run. If you’re considering buying or selling a home, it is key to educate yourself so that you can take thoughtful and intentional next steps for your future.
For example, when there’s fear in the world, we see lower mortgage interest rates as investors flee stocks for the safety of U.S. bonds. This connection should be considered when making real estate decisions.
“The Fed’s action was expected but perhaps not to this degree and timing. And the policy change was consistent with recent declines for interest rates in the bond market. These declines should push mortgage interest rates closer to a low 3% average for the 30-year fixed rate mortgage.”
This is exactly what we’re experiencing right now as mortgage interest rates hover at the lowest levels in the history of the housing market.
Bottom Line
The full impact of the Coronavirus is still not yet known. It is in times like these that working with an informed and educated real estate professional can make all the difference in the world.
The start of each year provides an opportunity for setting new goals and resolutions to accomplish. And what better resolution is there than boosting the safety and security of your home? That’s why we’ve put together this list of solutions to consider that can make 2020 the safest year yet for you and your family:
Getting
a New Furnace
We’ll start with one factor that most families
don’t think about until there’s an obvious problem: the furnace. This year,
have a professional come out and look at your furnace to make sure it’s in good
condition. If your home’s furnace is old or malfunctioning in some way, it can
pose a number of dangers for your household.
The most significant threat is carbon monoxide
poisoning, as this invisible, odorless gas can cause serious—potentially
fatal—health issues. A bad furnace can also lead to an increase of pathogens, mold, and dust circulating in your
home, which can cause breathing problems for people in your household.
Furthermore, if a furnace is not working properly, it can become a fire hazard.
HomeAdvisor notes the average cost of
installing or replacing a furnace is currently between $2,543 and $6,121. Whether you pay
within this range or pay more or less will depend on what type of furnace is
installed. For instance, an electric furnace can run you anywhere from $1,700
to $7,000, while a gas furnace typically costs $2,000 to $10,000.
When you’re shopping for different types of
furnaces, remember that labor will usually cost $500 to $2,000, depending on
the furnace you choose and the scope of the work involved.
Having
Your Roof Inspected
The roof is your home’s first line of defense
against the elements. As Medium explains, it’s also a critical structural
component, and if it’s compromised in any way, it can lead to severe structural
problems which can pose safety concerns for you and your
family. Call a professional inspector to look your roof over for any issues. If
your roof is getting old, has missing or damaged shingles, or displays any
other problems, you should have it repaired or replaced appropriately.
Upgrading
Your Security System
One of the most effective ways to protect your
family and property is to invest in a quality home security system. There are
many smart security systems on the market that can reduce the likelihood of
your home falling victim to burglary or other property crimes.
Go for a security package that includes features
like surveillance cameras, door and window sensors, and a doorbell camera. Many
systems can be installed DIY-style,
and monitoring runs from free to $59.99 per month, depending on the service and
features selected.
Taking
Additional Safety Precautions
A lot of maintaining a safe home comes down to
the people living in it. To keep your family safe and secure, consider these
precautions:
Make sure your entry doors are
stable, and replace the door or add support if necessary.
Trick burglars when no one is home
by setting timers to turn your lights on and/or by using a fake TV simulator.
Ask a neighbor to pick up your
mail and park their car in your driveway when you’re on vacation.
Keep your valuables well-hidden
from outside observers.
Add motion sensors and warning signs to
your front yard and backyard.
Nothing is more important than ensuring the
safety of your family and property. Get professionals out to look at your
furnace and roof, and have them repaired or replaced accordingly. Also,
research the many types of home security options on the market, and choose what
will work best for your family’s needs. Finally, be sure to follow essential
protocols that will help protect your home, both when you’re at home and away.
Carolina Living Real Estate Can Help with homes of all sizes and prices!
Movies, tv shows, and celebrities often have us dreaming of owning large homes, but the reality for most people is quite different.
Since 2015, the square footage of newly built houses has been shrinking, according to Yahoo Finances. This is not projected to change as we continue into the beginning of the year.
“We expect this downsizing trend to continue in 2020, driven by a confluence of economic and demographic trends.”
Why are smaller homes trending now?
As noted in the article, there are a few main reasons for this demand:
“Many of today’s younger, millennial home buyers have expressed a preference for denser, more urban homes that are more walkable to shared amenities.”
“Today’s older homeowners are expressing a desire for smaller, less maintenance-heavy and more accessible (read: less stairs) homes as they age and move into newer homes.”
With these two demographic groups surging through the market, the demand for this type of home is rising. If you’re a homeowner with a smaller-scale house, now may be a great time to sell, as the demand for this end of the market is surely on the rise.
Bottom Line
The demand for smaller houses will continue to rise throughout 2020. Let’s get together to discuss what the housing inventory looks like in your neighborhood. It might be time for you to take advantage of this trend!
